Jennings’ Poll in Florida’s 13th District Neglects Reality

From Roll Call:

A new poll released by Florida Democrat Christine Jennings is a great example of why it’s important to not accept polling numbers and memos at face value.

Two years ago, Jennings lost the 13th district open-seat race by the slimmest of margins, 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent, to Republican Vern Buchanan. Jennings contested the results for months, claiming that voting machines in Sarasota County malfunctioned, resulting in a large number of undervotes and costing her the election.

The courts and, ultimately, the House, rejected those claims.
On Friday, the Jennings campaign released a poll showing her down by just 4 points in her 2008 rematch with Buchanan. According to the Sept. 22-23 Feldman Group poll, the GOP Congressman held a narrow 44 percent to 40 percent advantage in the head-to-head matchup, with 16 percent undecided.

The problem is that there are four candidates on the November ballot, not two, including 2002 and 2004 13th district Democratic nominee Jan Schneider, who is running as an Independent. The one-page polling memo makes no mention of Schneider or any third-party candidates, but asserts, “This contest has become too close to call with atmospherics that favor Jennings.”

Buchanan is vulnerable, but this polling memo and two-way ballot ignore the reality of the electoral situation and is a misleading attempt by the campaign to generate buzz around the race.