Politico: RNC VOTING STARTS AT NOON. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SAYS IT'LL GO 4-6 BALLOTS, WITH EACH BALLOT TAKING ABOUT 30 MINUTES, BUT IT COULD BE A LOT LONGER OR SHORTER.
TOTAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTCOME ACROSS ALL CAMPS AND OBSERVERS.
First Read: The self-help saying "Today is the first day of the rest of my life" could very well apply to the Republican Party today as it meets in DC to elect a new chairman after its stinging political defeats in 2006 and 2008. There are five candidates: current chairman Mike Duncan of Kentucky, Michigan party chair Saul Anuzis, former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, South Carolina party chair Katon Dawson, and former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. (A sixth candidate, former Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltsman, who distributed the CD with "Barack the Magic Negro" on it, withdrew from the race yesterday.)
The vote offers several mini-themes. There's the referendum on the incumbent Duncan (the vote will likely turn into a race between Duncan and an anti-Duncan choice). There are the candidates' regional differences (Anuzis and Steele are from reliable Dem states; Dawson and Duncan are from solid GOP ones). There's ideology (Blackwell and Dawson are the most conservative candidates; Steele is perhaps the most moderate).
There's race (Blackwell and Steele are black, Dawson once belonged to a whites-only country club, "Barack the Magic Negro"). And then there's the members-only angle (Duncan, Anuzis, and Dawson are RNC members; Blackwell are Steele are outsiders). In fact, that final point could very well swing the election in the second and third rounds of balloting. If Anuzis and/or Dawson drop out, do their supporters bolt to the outsider Steele? Or do they back Duncan, the man they've worked with for quite some time?
*** The Mechanics Of The Vote: The 168 RNC members convene at 10:30 am ET, and here's what follows: They conduct a head count (determining how many members and proxies are in attendance); they determine how the vote is conducted (it's expected to be by secret ballot); they give nominating and seconding speeches; and finally they begin the balloting. To win, a candidate needs a simple majority (so 85 votes out of the 168). There is no cut-off threshold -- for example, if Blackwell finishes last in the first round of voting, he isn't forced out of the contest -- so it's anyone's guess how many round of ballots there will be. Also, the results from each round of voting will be announced publicly. As of Thursday, First Read's survey of the 168 RNC members had Duncan with 44 first-vote supporters, Steele with 30, Dawson at 18, Blackwell and Anuzis at 16 each, and Saltsman (who has since dropped out) at 1.
