RNC Elex Rundown

Couple helpful analyses today in Politico and NBC's First Read on the RNC Chair Election, which is happening now...stay tuned...

Politico: RNC VOTING STARTS AT NOON. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SAYS IT'LL GO 4-6 BALLOTS, WITH EACH BALLOT TAKING ABOUT 30 MINUTES, BUT IT COULD BE A LOT LONGER OR SHORTER.

TOTAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTCOME ACROSS ALL CAMPS AND OBSERVERS.

First Read: The self-help saying "Today is the first day of the rest of my life" could very well apply to the Republican Party today as it meets in DC to elect a new chairman after its stinging political defeats in 2006 and 2008. There are five candidates: current chairman Mike Duncan of Kentucky, Michigan party chair Saul Anuzis, former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, South Carolina party chair Katon Dawson, and former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. (A sixth candidate, former Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltsman, who distributed the CD with "Barack the Magic Negro" on it, withdrew from the race yesterday.)

The vote offers several mini-themes. There's the referendum on the incumbent Duncan (the vote will likely turn into a race between Duncan and an anti-Duncan choice). There are the candidates' regional differences (Anuzis and Steele are from reliable Dem states; Dawson and Duncan are from solid GOP ones). There's ideology (Blackwell and Dawson are the most conservative candidates; Steele is perhaps the most moderate).

There's race (Blackwell and Steele are black, Dawson once belonged to a whites-only country club, "Barack the Magic Negro"). And then there's the members-only angle (Duncan, Anuzis, and Dawson are RNC members; Blackwell are Steele are outsiders). In fact, that final point could very well swing the election in the second and third rounds of balloting. If Anuzis and/or Dawson drop out, do their supporters bolt to the outsider Steele? Or do they back Duncan, the man they've worked with for quite some time?

*** The Mechanics Of The Vote: The 168 RNC members convene at 10:30 am ET, and here's what follows: They conduct a head count (determining how many members and proxies are in attendance); they determine how the vote is conducted (it's expected to be by secret ballot); they give nominating and seconding speeches; and finally they begin the balloting. To win, a candidate needs a simple majority (so 85 votes out of the 168). There is no cut-off threshold -- for example, if Blackwell finishes last in the first round of voting, he isn't forced out of the contest -- so it's anyone's guess how many round of ballots there will be. Also, the results from each round of voting will be announced publicly. As of Thursday, First Read's survey of the 168 RNC members had Duncan with 44 first-vote supporters, Steele with 30, Dawson at 18, Blackwell and Anuzis at 16 each, and Saltsman (who has since dropped out) at 1.

WaPo Politics blog: "Are Republicans on the March?"

WaPo's Chris Cillizza has an interesting take on Republican victories in Georgia and Louisiana over the past few days. These victories echo GOP's performance in Florida, where the Obama coattails were short and FL Democrats failed to defeat a single Republican incumbent in the Legislature, even in the best possible political environment.

Notes Cillizza, "In the wake of an election cycle dominated by bad news for Republicans, the last five days have been a welcome relief.

Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss cruised to a runoff victory last Tuesday, and House Republicans held Louisiana's 4th district and pulled off a massive upset win over Rep. Bill Jefferson in Louisiana's 2nd district on Saturday.

Those three developments have led some Republicans to insist that what happened on Nov. 4 was almost entirely due to President-elect Barack Obama's unique electoral appeal and that when the soon-to-be-president is not on the ballot -- the 2010 midterm elections -- his party will not fare nearly as well.

"Voters vented on Nov. 4th and the momentum that swept Obama and many other Democrats to victory has now stalled a bit," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, a partner in the firm Public Opinion Strategies. "It seems it might have been 'easy' to get the Democratic base excited about Nov. 4th -- the historic opportunity to elect Obama and send a message of rejection to Bush's eight-year tenure -- but it's a bit more difficult re-energizing those voters now, with seemingly less at stake."

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"While I don't think these victories mean that the GOP has miraculously fixed everything that is currently broken, I do think that they a really positive data points," said Alex Vogel, a prominent Republican strategist. "Just like the Democrats took advance comfort from the special elections they won leading up to the 2008 elections, we should certainly view these overtime wins as a sign that the sun is rising again."

Democrats blew it in Florida

We couldn't have put it better ourselves! Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times explains the Florida Democrats' failure to capitalize on the Obama wave.

Democrats blew it in Florida?

The biggest surprise in Tuesday's results may be how poorly -- other than Barack Obama (all hail Steve Schale!) -- Florida Democrats performed despite the Obama juggernaut helping turn out votes.

They netted one Congressional seat and showed that Democrats can compete well in heavily Cuban-American districts. But despite the anti-GOP climate, they did not pick off a single incumbent Republican in the Legislature and ultimately may net just one state House seat. Two words: Pa Thetic.

And gloomy Republicans today can find plenty of reasons for solace: On Constitutional amendments, Floridians voted strongly to cut taxes, ban gay marriage and oppose tax increases for community colleges.

There's no real evidence of a Democratic tide in Florida.

Election Day at the RPOF

Chairman Greer's Election Day Message

Greer says Madison, Jefferson and the Gang Would Applaud Crist

The Herald Tribune's Joe Follick blogs:

Republican Party of Florida chairman Jim Greer had a short interview on MSNBC this afternoon where he defended Gov. Charlie Crist’s 180-degree switcheroo to expand early voting hours.

Greer was asked about an anonymous quote in Politico from a Florida Republican who said the move will cost McCain the election by expanding the ability of Democrats to vote.

“I don’t believe that. We shouldn’t be partisan when it comes to giving voters the opportunity to participate in the process. I know there are some that believe the governor’s actions yesterday to extend voting was not good for the Republican Party. I don’t buy that. I don’t think we’re going to see a greater number of voters coming to the polls,” Greer said, adding that the number of voters will stay the same even if the lines get shorter.

“I think Gov. Crist’s actions yesterday would make our founding fathers quite proud,” he said.

Orlando Sentinel: ACORN's voter registration sloppiness could create problems come Election Day

The community organizing group known as ACORN has been getting kicked around quite a bit on the presidential campaign trail lately. The group has no one but itself to blame.

The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now says it has registered 1.3 million people for the Nov. 4 election. But its pattern of turning in some applications with false names and made-up addresses has spurred investigations in at least a half-dozen states.

ACORN says it has signed up 140,000 voters in Florida. Elections officials in Orange and Seminole counties have reported problems in hundreds of forms submitted by the group. Even if that's the extent of the trouble, instead of the tip of the iceberg, it's not insignificant in a state where 537 votes wound up deciding the 2000 presidential election.

ACORN says it's required by law to turn in all its applications and flag the few with problems. But good intentions don't excuse what's at best a sloppy operation -- especially because the group's employees have been caught in prior elections submitting bogus registrations. Its practice of paying employees bonuses to sign up new voters invites phony applications. States should bar that practice, if ACORN won't.

ACORN aims its registration drives at lower-income voters, who tend to vote Democratic. The group's most vocal critics are, naturally, Republicans. ACORN and its supporters contend its opponents are trying to distract attention from efforts, often pushed by Republicans, to suppress voting. Investigators need to be on guard against both.

Meanwhile, the controversy over ACORN may be priming the pump for another legal battle royal if the election is close. Anyone up for a rerun of Florida 2000? We didn't think so.

View the editorial here

5 Questions for Mahoney

The National Republican Congressional Committee released a statement today after Tim Mahoney (D-FL) refused to answer questions at his press conference responding to news reports that he paid a former employee $121,000 in hush money.

“Congressman Tim Mahoney’s cover-up and stonewalling three weeks from Election Day is nothing more than an attempt to run out the clock without being accountable to voters in his district. While today’s press conference must have been very difficult for Mr. Mahoney, his statement was incomplete and insufficient. The voters in the 16th Congressional District have been let down one too many times by both parties, and they deserve an open and swift account from Mr. Mahoney.

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Based on news reports, the Democrat Leadership had at least some knowledge of Congressman Mahoney’s inappropriate and potentially illegal behavior, which begs the question: What did the Democrat Leadership know and when did they know it?

Five questions Tim Mahoney should answer today:

Did Tim Mahoney pay his former employee $121,000?

Did the money originate from his campaign account? If not, from where?

Is Ms. Allen telling the truth when she said Tim Mahoney arranged to get her a job with his media firm?

Why did Tim Mahoney find it necessary to move Ms. Allen off the government payroll and pay her from his campaign account once rumors of their affair surfaced?

How long has the Democrat Leadership known Mahoney paid off his mistress and what did they advise Mahoney to do when they learned of it?

Think the 2008 Election is the Height of Mudslinging?

Read today's Washington Post Column and you might think differently. In the election of 1800, Thomas Jefferson was attacked by ministers who accused him of being an "infidel" and an "unbeliever." A Federalist cartoon depicted him as a drunken anarchist, and the president of Yale warned that if Jefferson came to power, "we may see our wives and daughters the victims of legal prostitution." Think that is bad, wait to you hear what they said about John Adams!