Monday, December 8, 2008

WaPo Politics blog: "Are Republicans on the March?"

WaPo's Chris Cillizza has an interesting take on Republican victories in Georgia and Louisiana over the past few days. These victories echo GOP's performance in Florida, where the Obama coattails were short and FL Democrats failed to defeat a single Republican incumbent in the Legislature, even in the best possible political environment.

Notes Cillizza, "In the wake of an election cycle dominated by bad news for Republicans, the last five days have been a welcome relief.

Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss cruised to a runoff victory last Tuesday, and House Republicans held Louisiana's 4th district and pulled off a massive upset win over Rep. Bill Jefferson in Louisiana's 2nd district on Saturday.

Those three developments have led some Republicans to insist that what happened on Nov. 4 was almost entirely due to President-elect Barack Obama's unique electoral appeal and that when the soon-to-be-president is not on the ballot -- the 2010 midterm elections -- his party will not fare nearly as well.

"Voters vented on Nov. 4th and the momentum that swept Obama and many other Democrats to victory has now stalled a bit," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, a partner in the firm Public Opinion Strategies. "It seems it might have been 'easy' to get the Democratic base excited about Nov. 4th -- the historic opportunity to elect Obama and send a message of rejection to Bush's eight-year tenure -- but it's a bit more difficult re-energizing those voters now, with seemingly less at stake."

...

"While I don't think these victories mean that the GOP has miraculously fixed everything that is currently broken, I do think that they a really positive data points," said Alex Vogel, a prominent Republican strategist. "Just like the Democrats took advance comfort from the special elections they won leading up to the 2008 elections, we should certainly view these overtime wins as a sign that the sun is rising again."